What Makes Our Generation So "Smart"?
Before we leave Strauss & Howe, let us ask one more time: Why did they miss the conclusion that their theory predicts the next crisis to be about People vs. Corporations?
Many will say that Strauss & Howe missed it because it ain’t IT. But assuming for the moment that it is IT, I’ll suggest the following: We all tend to make sense of the world from what is directly in front of us. We listen to the loudest signals and ignore the quieter ones. The loudest signals today are not the anti-Corporate signals. The anti-Corporate signals are relatively quiet. But although quiet, they are there.
In defense of Strauss & Howe, let’s ask:
- How many in 1928 were predicting an imminent stock market crash, followed almost immediately by a worldwide economic depression, followed by the ascendancy of the thoroughly beaten-down labor movement, followed by a World War even more vicious and terrifying than the one that was concluded only a decade before?
- How many in 1859 were predicting a scorched earth war, in which brother would fight brother, the result being the end of slavery?
- How many in 1772 were predicting a revolution that would give birth to the first nation in the history of mankind dedicated to the notion that “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness”?
I don’t know the answers to these questions. I suspect the answer to all is “not many”. Probably some did predict these events in advance. But the vast majority did not.
What about me? What's so special about me that I noticed what I am writing about in this weblog? If my analysis proves correct, does that make me a seer? A wise man?
Hardly. I'm just a guy who has read both the Fourth Turning and When Corporations Rule the World. Now, I did specifically seek out those books after I had noticed signs of political cycles in America, and after I "awoke" to some of the stuff concerning Corporations that I will be writing about later. That is, I was reading the news, and some thoughts popped into my head about political cycles and about the Corporations. So then I thought: "I don't need to reinvent the wheel. I'll bet others have already nailed these subjects." Sure enough, I found Strauss & Howe on the one question, and David Korten on the other. In my humble opinion, these folks have "nailed" their respective subjects.
Now the only interesting thing about me is that I read both books at the same time. If you check out each book on Amazon.com, you won't find each book cited as "suggested further reading" for the other book. I'd be willing to bet that few people have read both books. That's because Fourth Turning seems to be a "conservative" favorite, whereas When Corporations Rule the World is apparently an "ultra-liberal" (read: Green) favorite.
But I did read them both and it sure seemed to me like they lined up nicely. So if I am correct about that, that doesn't make me particularly "smart". It just might mean that my own curiosity lies in places different from that of most.
The interesting question to me is not "Which among us should get a pat on the back?" The interesting question is, if what I am saying here is correct, what makes our generation so different from the previous generations that we collectively could correctly predict the coming crisis, and plan for it? That the previous crises are called "crises" is testament to the fact that people weren't prepared for the radical changes.
But if our generation exhibits preparation, we come back to the interesting question: what makes our generation so different? I believe the answer is "technology". I believe technology impacts the "why are we so smart" question in that in its advance, technology seems to have had the effect of "speeding up" history.
On the question of "history speeding up", an earlier posting listed the major American crises, including the beginning and ending years of those crises, as identified by Strauss & Howe. Also, those authors predict that the next crisis - the "Millennial Crisis" - will start around the year 2005. Assuming that this prediction proves correct, and then subtracting the ending year of one crisis from the beginning year of the next crisis, we arrive at the following list:
- 82 years from the War of the Roses to the Spanish Armada Crisis
- 81 years from the Spanish Armada Crisis to the Glorious Revolution
- 69 years from the Glorious Revolution to the American Revolution
- 66 years from the American Revolution to the Civil War
- 64 years from the Civil War to the Great Depression and World War II
- 59 years from Great Depression and World War II to the Millennial Crisis
This list powerfully shows that history is indeed "speeding up". But speeding up to where? A social pessimist would look at the above list and conclude that America is headed for a state of perpetual, endless war. But a social optimist would say that American is headed, instead, toward the end of wars.
Which is true? Who knows? But we do know something is happening. This speed up of history has allowed our generation to identify these cyclical patterns with reasonable clarity. Strauss & Howe are the members of our generation who seem to have best identified those cycles.
Many believe that the reason why history is speeding up has to do with advancing technology. One of the undeniable effects of technological advance has been to make it a "small world after all". I'll be writing more on this notion later. But, for now, realize that small worlds allow information to be shared more quickly and broadly. So the pace of collective learning is increasing at an ever faster rate.
I believe the current apex of that "collective learning" technology is the Internet. I suppose you could say that I believe the Internet will "change the world" after all. But not necessarily in the way many of us were frothing about during the dot com boom of the 1990s. Instead, I believe the Internet will change the world by helping us to save us from ourselves. I'll have much more to say on what that means in later postings.
This gives me optimism that the next "war" truly will be the "war to end all wars". Yeah, yeah, I know. They all said that about the last big one. And about the one before that. And so on.
But the reason I say it here is that this "war" will be "fought" by the American People in a way that will be radically different from the way every major war has been fought up until now. History says that it has to be. Specifically, I believe the next "war" will be "fought" with the "weapons" of love and self-reliance.
Do I say this because I believe America is ready for Ghandi? No way. I suspect a preponderance of Americans (if pulled away long enough from the television set to be taught about Ghandhi) would say that the skinny fellow could have used a Super-sized meal and an AK-47.
Do I say this because I believe Americans are "spiritually awakening" to the "God" that is inside each of us? No way. I suspect there are almost as many ideas about "God" in America as there are skinny people (i.e. more than 100,000, but WAY less than 292 million).
Nope, for my belief about Americans "fighting" with love and self-reliance, I'm relying on my belief that the vast majority of us Americans are self-centered, selfish bastards interested primarily in the survival of "you know who". That's right. We're all looking out for "No. 1". I believe even those of us who seem to be looking out for No. 2 are doing it as a way of looking out for No. 1.
Actually, I believe this about everybody in the world. But what makes Americans special is that:
- among all the People of the world, it is we American People who are most defenseless in the face of the Corporate assault on People; and
- among all the People of the world, it is we American People who are most free to make the choice to "buck our own culture"
I'll be writing more about this vulnerability in later postings. But on the question of our freedom to make choices counter to the dominant culture, I don't think I need to expound on that. I believe anyone who has spent significant time outside of America can testify to the greater cultural freedoms we enjoy in America. Hey, it's so free in this country that, unless we are in the midst of a disaster, it can feel as though almost nobody cares about anybody else.
Speaking of disasters, I believe (based, in part, on the theory of Strauss & Howe) that one or more disasters will soon visit us. I further believe these disasters will cause this vulnerability and this freedom to come together and fuse, leaving us Americans with a stark choice: use the "weapons" of love and self-reliance, or literally perish. In other words, what I'm saying here is that all of those Jesus freaks were right all along. They all said: "Repent or perish!"
But you aren't going to be reading about scripture in this weblog. If you read on, you are going to be reading about things in this world in which live. Things that we all see with our own eyes, and touch with our own hands. Things going on right under our own noses.
[posted: 12/14/03]