The Pandemic Domino
So here I am predicting a pandemic and citing the steady drum beat of news articles warning of it. Clearly, I think such a pandemic would be dangerous to America. But how? I haven't had time to write this up in the analysis section. But here's a quick and dirty analysis: The danger is not so much that a large percentage of Americans will die during such a pandemic. The news article cited in the posting below predicts "only" a half million flu deaths. Even if that prediction is short by a factor of 10, and five million people end up dying, that will still account for less than 2% of the American population. This is a far cry from the 33% mortality rate of the Black Death in Europe during the 1300s. So what's the big deal if a million or two Americans die prematurely of the flu? Well, of course, it will be a big deal if that one or two million includes you or me or any of our friends and family. But still, how could our personal tragedies lead to a systemic harming of America? Here's my answer: fear. If a surprising number of Americans with health insurance start dying of a mysterious flu, and government, business, and media are exposed as impotent to stop it, Americans will panic. And they'll do exactly what Mr. Bush implored them not to do in the wake of 9/11. Remember what Mr. Bush said was our patriotic duty in light of 9/11? He said it was to keep shopping. If a pandemic sweeps through America, panic will follow in its wake, and frightened chubby people will avoid population centers, and abate all but the most essential shopping. Depending on how long the panic lasts, this panic could end up bursting the housing bubble, the credit bubble, the hedge fund bubble, the U.S. dollar bubble, and just about every other financial bubble that we're presently riding. In other words, America has been teetering on a financial collapse since 2000. Many are writing about it. But since everyone in the financial community is aware of the "bearish" predictions, they seem unlikely to come true. That is, they're unlikely to come true, unless something unexpected comes out of left field to blow up the uneasy calm. That "something", I believe, will be a pandemic. But all that aside, enjoy your summer!
[posted: 06/24/05]
