Prediction 5: Red Won't Receive 270 Electoral Votes in '08
The Republicans won't receive over 50% of the available electoral votes in 2008. Neither will the Democrats (as we know them today). Beyond that, I have no idea.
[posted: 11/29/04]Explanation
When was the last time a single party held the Presidency, plus majorities in the House and Senate for four years? Answer: 1977-81, during the Democratic Carter administration. Clinton had a Democratic-led House and Senate for only two years (1993-95); neither Reagan nor Poppy Bush ever had a Republican-led House and Senate.
When was the last time the Republican Party held the Presidency, plus majorities in the House and Senate for four years? Answer: 1927-31, during the Coolidge and Hoover administrations. Eisenhower had a Republican-led House and Senate for only two years (1953-55); neither Nixon, nor Ford, nor Reagan nor Poppy Bush ever had it.
What happened after the Carter administration? Republican revolution led by Mr. Morning-in-America Ronald Reagan.
What happened after the Hoover administration? Democratic revolution led by Mr. WPA Franklin Roosevelt.
If voters were so sure about a party in 1927-31 and 1977-81 that they gave the Presidency, the House, and Senate to that party, why did they "throw the bums out" at the end of those four years?
What would your answer be if you were allowed only a single response that answers both the Carter and Coolidge/Hoover circumstances?
My single answer says that these two four-year periods represented the end of certain social phases in America. During those periods, Americans were fed an overdose of a particular ideology that had informed society during the preceding couple decades or so. And by the end of these periods, America barfed.
Guess what the 2004 election bought the Republicans? It bought the first four-year (2003-2007) Republican Presidency, Republican House, and Republican Senate since the last such four year stretch ended in 1931.
So to the Blue I say: If you thought the last couple of years felt kind of Red to you, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
To the Red I say: Enjoy your Red Nation while it lasts. It could be another 73 years before you get to enjoy such times again.
But if the Democrats (as we know them today) are not even around in 2008, and the Republicans don't receive a majority of the electoral votes, who else will play a dominant role in that election?
Your guess is as good as mine. But I will say: watch the children. Heck, just look at Iranian youth. Twenty-five years ago this month, Iran underwent an Islamic Revolution. The Iranian people kicked out this guy we had given to them as a gift. Geez. Talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth. And then some scary looking guy in a black turban named "The Ayatollah" starts calling us the "Great Satan" and other mean stuff like that.
Well, that was 25 years ago. Surely today, the children of those scary revolutionaries are even scarier.
Guess again. The children of those true believers seem a little bit lax in the believing department. Maybe those children barfed at the certainty and intolerance of their fathers.
I suspect this dynamic is human one. If so, it applies in America too. In America, I predict we will be fed a steady diet of Red in the coming years, just as we were fed a steady of Red in 1927-31 and a steady diet of Blue in 1977-81. Moreover, just as the children barfed in 1930 and 1980 in response to those steady diets, so will the children barf in the coming years. And I'm predicting that barfing children will mess up the '08 election.
