Duck! and Gather

... for the money has gone too far.

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Prediction 7: Crude at $100; Gold at $1000

The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price will hit $100/barrel; the Kitco 24 hour spot gold (bid) price will hit $1000/ounce.


[posted: 12/04/04]Crude at $100; Gold at $1000


I've got this really smart friend -- PhD, published author -- who thinks that a bunch of my predictions are full of sh*#. In particular, he disagrees with my prediction of an impending financial crisis. Confident in his view, he says: "Let's bet on it".

Well, in order to bet, one needs to choose some metrics upon which to bet. Therein lies the trouble. You see, most financial metrics (e.g. inflation, unemployment, interest rates, etc.) are within the primary control of the government. In fact, the government could be lying to us about these metrics, and so it would be tough to reliably bet on them.

That's why I'm picking the price of crude oil and the price of gold as my metrics. Sure, the U.S. government has some control over these metrics too. But I believe that a sufficiently big part of the dynamics underlying the prices of these commodities is outside the control of the government.

At this point, I would normally launch into my argument why I'm making this prediction, and how the realization of this prediction would relate to a financial crisis.

But, you know, I'm not done with our financial planning yet. And it would suit me just fine if you think this particular prediction is complete and utter poppycock.

In any event, it's all moot anyway because you're not reading this. In fact, I don't think anybody -- other than a few friends to whom I've pointed this blog -- has read this blog. That's just fine with me. After I'm done with buying gold, maybe I'll make more effort to get this blog "out there".

But for now, please return to your regularly scheduled programming.

(By the way, if you're wondering why I'm posting this prediction today even though I'm not crazy about you reading it, then you, my friend, are either unaware of the Wayback Machine, or you discount the props accruing from the right to say: "I told you so.")

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